By Ph.D., ASA Samuel A. Broverman

The ACTEX C/4 research guide is the proper research device to aid within the coaching for the SOA examination C and CAS examination four. It presents thorough assurance of the entire syllabus issues of modeling, version estimation, version development and choice, credibility, simulation and threat measures.

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Find the probability that the policy is from Class A. (iv) Suppose that there is a total of one claim for the policy over the first two years. Find the probability that the policy is from Class A. 12. An annual claim frequency model for a portfolio of insurance policies has the following characteristics. • half of the policies have annual frequency that is Poisson distribution with a mean of 2 • half of the policies have annual frequency that is Poisson with a mean of 4 • the annual claims are independent from one year to the next conditional on the Poisson mean being known.

3 ) + (0 ! 09633. 4. P[Type = 5. llx -_ 1] -_ 1 Answer: E P[X=11Type l]·P[Type I] P[X=1] P[X=11Type l]·P[Type 1] = P[X=11Type l]·P[Type l]+P[X=11Type 2]·P[Type 2] . Answer·. D + (e k! )(3) = fr(k) · a1 + h(k) · a2 (e k! )(3) This is a mixture oftwo Poisson distributions. fx(k) · · 2 + ( 120 )( ~) = Jo . ) ·88 . B P[adult smokern3 colds] . P[3 colds] . 1235 by conditioning over the type of individual. 158. 6. 01954. Answer: B The unconditional claim model is a mixture of two Paretos. 25. 75)(~~~) a~ 1 (first moment) and (a-{)~~- 2 ) (second moment).

1547)a) 100, 000] = (. 1547 )(~)+(. 709. The order of calculations can be summarized as follows. 3 of "Loss Models". The suggested time frame for this section is 3-4 hours. The Bayesian approach to credibility has the same initial steps as the Bayesian analysis presented in Section 2, we just take the analysis a few steps further. We begin with the basic components of Bayesian analysis, which are the prior (parameter 8) distribution and the model distribution (a distribution X that is conditional on the value of the prior parameter 8).